Slavery is far from a relic of the past. Between 2003 and 2021, more than 450,000 victims of human trafficking were officially recorded worldwide, according to a UNODC report. But these figures reveal only a fraction of this hidden, pervasive crime. The International Labour Organisation estimates that, on any given day in 2021, nearly one in 150 individuals worldwide was subjected to modern slavery practices, including different forms of forced labour and forced marriage. Within the VANGUARD project, efforts are underway to build a comprehensive intelligence picture aimed at uncovering this underground phenomenon and understanding its emerging trends.

Transcrime, Research Centre on Innovation and Crime of the Università Cattolica of Milan is the VANGUARD’s partner leading the effort to uncover these mechanisms through extensive literature review and empirical research, including interviews with experts (e.g. LEAs, border guards and policy makers), as well as victims and perpetrators who have been involved in THB. 

Initial findings, focusing on sex and labour trafficking and forced labour in Europe, highlight the growing complexity of these criminal operations, often linked to other crimes such as money laundering and drug trafficking, and involving 80% of criminal organisations operating in the EU. A market estimated to generate criminal profits of $236 billion per year in the world. Yet, and despite the increase in victims, at the global level convictions have fallen significantly in recent years. An indicator of the sophistication of trafficking operations, also due to the shift of activities to the digital realm (websites, social media and the dark web); here, traffickers recruit and exploit victims through deceptive social connections, fraudulent job offers and manipulative tactics (an example is the so-called “lover boy” method to recruit potential victims for sex trafficking). Traffickers are also increasingly using digital platforms, including online games, to recruit people into forced criminality, although family ties remain the main vehicle for this purpose.

A focal point of the study is the identification of distinct trafficking patterns within the EU. Vulnerable groups such as women and migrants tend to be the main targets and, worryingly, one in four victims is a child. 60% of victims in the EU are from non-EU countries, with Nigeria, Ukraine, Morocco, Bangladesh and Colombia leading this unhappy ranking, while Romania, France, Hungary, Bulgaria and Germany are the main EU countries of citizenship of victims. We explored the routes and modus operandi of traffickers in recruiting, transporting and exploiting victims, as well as the laundering and reinvestment of illicit profits. 

To better define the best strategies to combat this phenomenon, Transcrime research also outlines the main vulnerabilities and protective factors of both victims and perpetrators. Most common reasons that push victims into exploitation are unemployment, false promises and the lack of a support network. On the other hand, traffickers are often motivated by the prospect of economic gain and lifestyle aspirations. Strong family ties, trust in law enforcement and access to education are instead among the key factors preventing potential victims from being trafficked.

Raising public awareness and understanding of THB risks has therefore to be a priority for public authorities in the EU and is a key objective in the VANGUARD project.